Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate-driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well-being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns-per-spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock-recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well-documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.
A key assumption in trophic position (TP) estimation using stable isotope analysis is that consumers are in isotopic equilibrium with their resources. Here, we assess the degree to which time-varying resource dynamics and isotope incorporation rates of consumers influence consumer TP estimates across multiple trophic levels and aquatic ecosystems. We constructed a first-order kinetics model to explore consumer stable isotope incorporation rates and modeled the effect on TP calculations using bulk and compound-specific stable isotope data from previous experimental and observational studies. We found TP estimates of higher trophic level consumers are less accurate than lower trophic level consumers when applying bulk stable isotope analysis (BSIA) and using particulate organic matter as the stable isotope baseline. The accuracy of TP estimates depended on the time-varying dynamics of the stable isotope baseline. Tertiary consumers had the highest TP estimation error, and this error was not eliminated by sampling tissues with fast incorporation rates (i.e., blood) in the tertiary consumer. Compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) of individual amino acids was more accurate in estimating TP for all consumers and ecosystems compared to BSIA. Our analysis confirms that consideration for the dynamic nature of stable isotope ratios is necessary for accurate TP estimates. Finally, we show how first-order kinetics models can provide a useful framework for integrating prey and consumer incorporation rates in stable isotope studies to improve TP estimates.
Understanding how species are responding to environmental change is a central challenge for stewards and managers of fish and wildlife who seek to maintain harvest opportunities for communities and Indigenous peoples. This is a particularly daunting but increasingly important task in remote, high-latitude regions where environmental conditions are changing rapidly and data collection is logistically difficult. The Arctic–Yukon– Kuskokwim (AYK) region encompasses the northern extent of the Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha range where populations are experiencing rapid rates of environmental change across both freshwater and marine habitats due to global climate change. Climate–salmon interactions in the AYK region are a particularly pressing issue as many local communities have a deep reliance on a subsistence way of life. Here, we synthesize perspectives shared at a recent workshop on Chinook Salmon declines in the AYK region. The objectives were to discuss current understandings of climate–Chinook Salmon interactions, develop a set of outstanding questions, review available data and its limitations in addressing these questions, and describe the perspectives expressed by participants in this workshop from diverse backgrounds. We conclude by suggesting pathways forward to integrate different types of information and build relationships among communities, academic partners, and fishery management agencies.
Understanding the response of predators to ecological change at multiple temporal scales can elucidate critical predator–prey dynamics that would otherwise go unrecognized. We performed compound-specific nitrogen stable isotope analysis of amino acids on 153 harbor seal museum skull specimens to determine how trophic position of this marine predator has responded to ecosystem change over the past century. The relationships between harbor seal trophic position, ocean condition, and prey abundance, were analyzed using hierarchical modeling of a multi-amino-acid framework and applying 1, 2, and 3 years temporal lags. We identified delayed responses of harbor seal trophic position to both physical ocean conditions (upwelling, sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge) and prey availability (Pacific hake, Pacific herring, and Chinook salmon). However, the magnitude and direction of the trophic position response to ecological changes depended on the temporal delay. For example, harbor seal trophic position was negatively associated with summer upwelling but had a 1-year delayed response to summer sea surface temperature, indicating that some predator responses to ecosystem change are not immediately observable. These results highlight the importance of considering dynamic responses of predators to their environment as multiple ecological factors are often changing simultaneously and can take years to propagate up the food web.
We evaluated how trophic position of harbor seals and Steller sea lions has changed from the 1950s-2010s regional, decadal scales using a Bayesian hierarchical analysis using stable isotope data derived from historic harbor seal bone specimens.
We evaluated how ocean conditions influence the assimilation of nitrogen and carbon into coastal marine food webs y analyzing a century of newly acquired molecular isotope data derived from historic harbor seal bone specimens.
We measured the contribution of Pacific salmon to nitrogen transformations and concentrations to riparian boreal soils.
We assessed approaches that managers use to sustain stocks on ecological, economic, and community-level outcomes.
We developed a method for assessing length and residual program selectivity for Port Moller test fishery.